NKorea likely to build key nuke parts: US experts
North Korean scientists are able to build crucial equipment for nuclear bombs on their own.SEOUL (AP) - North Korean scientists are able to build crucial equipment for uranium-based nuclear bombs on their own, cutting the need for imports that had been one of the few ways outsiders could monitor the country s secretive atomic work, according to evidence gathered by two American experts.
The experts say material published in North Korean scientific publications and news media shows that Pyongyang is mastering domestic production of essential components for the gas centrifuges needed to make such bombs.
The development further complicates long-stalled efforts to stop a nuclear bomb program that Pyongyang has vowed to expand, despite international condemnation.
If Pyongyang can make crucial centrifuge parts at home, outsiders can t track sensitive imports. That could spell the end of policies based on export controls, sanctions and interdiction that have been the centerpiece of international efforts to stop North Korea s nuclear program over the last decade, Joshua Pollack, a Washington-based expert on nuclear proliferation, said in remarks prepared for delivery Wednesday at a Seoul symposium and provided in advance to The Associated Press.
"If they re not importing these goods in the first place, then we can t catch them in the act," said Pollack, who gathered the evidence with Scott Kemp, an expert on centrifuge technology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "We won t necessarily see anything more than what the North Koreans want us to see."
The state of North Korea s nuclear program is of vital concern to Washington because Pyongyang wants to build an arsenal of nuclear-armed missiles that can reach American shores.
The North has conducted three nuclear tests of apparently increasing power since 2006, most recently in February, and it is believed to have a handful of crude plutonium-based bombs. Many experts estimate, however, that Pyongyang has not yet mastered the miniaturization technology needed to mount a warhead on a long-range missile.
Fuel for North Korea s plutonium bombs has been made in a reactor that is large and easily monitored. But uranium-based weapons are more difficult for outsiders to investigate because the centrifuges needed to enrich uranium for bombs can be easily hidden away from satellites and prying inspectors.
The United States and others long suspected North Korea was clandestinely building a uranium program, despite denials from Pyongyang. US officials confronted North Korea in 2002 with claims its scientists were pursuing uranium enrichment, sparking a nuclear crisis.
In a reversal, visiting Americans were shown in November 2010 what they called a sophisticated, modern uranium enrichment facility with 2,000 centrifuges at the North s main nuclear facility.
International sanctions barring nuclear-weapons-related shipments to North Korea did not stop its progress even when it relied on imported equipment, but the US had some success tracking the parts allegedly used in the program. In 2007, for instance, then-US nuclear envoy Christopher Hill said Washington had evidence that Pyongyang had bought equipment used only for uranium enrichment.
News media reports and unclassified government documents showed North Korea imported large amounts of centrifuge parts in the early 2000s, Pollack said, but an apparent dearth of observed imports since then suggests that Pyongyang is making the necessary components at home. He said the know-how for domestic production of key parts appears to have been in place no later than 2009.
Pollack said he and Kemp found "strong and clear" evidence in state media photographs taken inside North Korean factories of specialized lathes that produce very strong metal cylinders needed for centrifuges. He also spoke of accounts in North Korean propaganda and technical journals of iron and steelmaking consistent with the production of an extremely hard steel alloy that can resist high rotational speeds in centrifuges, although the final step of the process wasn t described.
Pollack said their research also found scientific reports and patent awards describing work on technologies for crucial centrifuge parts.
Those include vacuum pumps that remove air from centrifuges and pipes before uranium-bearing gas is added and electronic devices that control the speed of the electric motor in the base of each centrifuge.
North Korea s nuclear program is cloaked in secrecy and treated domestically as a national treasure. The small, impoverished country says it must defend itself from U.S. machinations to overthrow its political system.
It s not clear whether North Korea has made bomb-grade uranium, and Pyongyang says the program is for peaceful, energy-generating purposes. But analysts strongly suspect that, even beyond the facility Americans toured in 2010, Pyongyang has other uranium enrichment facilities that could be producing large amounts of weapons-grade material.
Earlier this year, during a barrage of threats aimed at Washington and Seoul, Pyongyang vowed to resume all its nuclear fuel production. Recent satellite imagery appears to show that North Korea was restarting its plutonium reactor.
Outdoor air pollution causes cancer: WHO
The WHO says air we breathe has become polluted with a mixture of cancer-causing substances.LONDON (AP) - What many commuters choking on smog have long suspected has finally been scientifically validated: air pollution causes lung cancer.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer declared on Thursday that air pollution is a carcinogen, alongside known dangers such as asbestos, tobacco and ultraviolet radiation.
The decision came after a consultation by an expert panel organized by IARC, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization, which is based in Lyon, France.
"We consider this to be the most important environmental carcinogen, more so than passive smoking," said Kurt Straif, head of the IARC department that evaluates cancer-causing substances.
IARC had previously deemed some of the components in air pollution such as diesel fumes to be carcinogens, but this is the first time it has classified air pollution in its entirety as cancer causing.
The risk to the individual is low, but Straif said the main sources of pollution are widespread, including transportation, power plants, and industrial and agricultural emissions.
Air pollution is a complex mixture that includes gases and particulate matter, and IARC said one of its primary risks is the fine particles that can be deposited deep in the lungs of people.
"These are difficult things for the individual to avoid," he said, observing the worrying dark clouds from nearby factories that he could see from his office window in Lyon.
"When I walk on a street where there s heavy pollution from diesel exhaust, I try to go a bit further away," he said. "So that s something you can do."
The fact that nearly everyone on the planet is exposed to outdoor pollution could prompt governments and other agencies to adopt stricter controls on spewing fumes. Straif noted that WHO and the European Commission are reviewing their recommended limits on air pollution.
Previously, pollution had been found to boost the chances of heart and respiratory diseases.
The expert panel s classification was made after scientists analyzed more than 1,000 studies worldwide and concluded there was enough evidence that exposure to outdoor air pollution causes lung cancer.
In 2010, IARC said there were more than 220,000 lung cancer deaths worldwide connected to air pollution. The agency also noted a link with a slightly higher risk of bladder cancer.
Straif said there were dramatic differences in air quality between cities around the world and that the most polluted metropolises were in China and India, where people frequently don masks on streets to protect themselves.
China recently announced new efforts to curb pollution after experts found the country s thick smog hurts tourism. Beijing only began publicly releasing data about its air quality last year.
"I assume the masks could result in a reduction to particulate matter, so they could be helpful to reduce personal exposure," Straif said. But he said collective international action by governments was necessary to improve air quality. "People can certainly contribute by doing things like not driving a big diesel car, but this needs much wider policies by national and international authorities."
Other experts emphasized the cancer risk from pollution for the average person was very low but virtually unavoidable.
"You can choose not to drink or not to smoke, but you can t control whether or not you re exposed to air pollution," said Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatics at Harvard University s School of Public Health. "You can t just decide not to breathe," she said. Dominici was not connected to the IARC expert panel.
A person s risk for cancer depends on numerous variables, including genetics, exposure to dangerous substances and lifestyle choices regarding issues such as drinking alcohol, smoking and exercising.
Dominici said scientists are still trying to figure out which bits of pollution are the most lethal and called for a more targeted approach.
"The level of ambient pollution in the U.S. is much, much lower than it used to be, but we still find evidence of cancer and birth defects," she said. "The question is: How are we going to clean the air even further?"
Humans are responsible for climate change: UN
UN report to be released in Stockholm Friday will uncover scientific evidence for climate change.
STOCKHOLM (AFP) - Scientists and governments pored over the summary Thursday of an eagerly awaited UN report expected to emphasise the escalating threat from climate change.
To be released in Stockholm on Friday, it will be the Nobel-winning panel s first overview since 2007 of the scientific evidence for climate change.
A draft of the summary seen by AFP declares with the greatest emphasis to date that climate change is on the march and humans are responsible for it.
The report "will fire the starting gun" for negotiations on reaching a new global pact by the end of 2015 on curbing greenhouse gases, said Tim Gore of Oxfam International.
Those talks are supposed to enact a UN goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-Industrial Revolution levels.
But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report will indicate that this goal can only be secured though a herculean effort to save energy or switch to cleaner sources.
Only one of the scenarios postulated in the report sees any possibility of safely anchoring the temperature rise to within 2 C by 2100.
It would require fossil-fuel emissions -- scaling new peaks almost every year -- to top out in 2020, then drastically decline over the next half-century.
In the worst projection, however, warming will be about 5.6 C (10.1 F) compared to the pre-industrial yardstick. The report will predict sea levels to rise by between 26 and 81 centimetres (10.4 and 32.4 inches) by 2100, according to the draft.
In its last big review, published six years ago, the Nobel-winning group projected an 18-59 cm (7.2-23.6 inch) rise by 2100. The big change comes from new evidence of melting from parts of the giant icesheets that smother Greenland and Antarctica.
The key document being unveiled on Friday is a 31-page summary of a massive technical text, the first volume of the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report.
Governments around the world have a seat on the IPCC, and can vet the summary, given its implications for how states will address climate change. They cannot amend the main text, though.
Nations have called on scientists to tidy up a key section of the report to clarify why, over the past 15 years, temperatures have risen far slower than some computer models have suggested.
That phenomenon has been seized upon by sceptics to say that climate science is flawed or that global warming is a fraud by the green lobby.
Scientists attribute the "pause" to several factors, including variations in Earth s own climate system that are temporary but complex and still poorly understood.
The textual issue over this has been settled to the satisfaction of all, but delegates still have to pore over many other proposed amendments before the summary can be approved, said a source.
The challenge is "the volume of work, especially of the desire of some countries to get clarity," the delegate said. "But currently there are no sticking points." As a political issue, climate change is in the doldrums.
A first attempt was made at a summit in Copenhagen in 2009 for a deal to tame carbon emissions and help poor countries exposed to worsening droughts, storms and floods.
That event was a near-fiasco and led to the goal being postponed to 2015. Today, willingness for concessions is low, especially in countries still struggling after the 2008 financial crisis.
Some experts say the IPCC report will be too conservative. "They (in the IPCC) are so nervous now," said one, referring to damage done to the panel s reputation when several errors were found in its landmark 2007 overview. But the fact that the summary is explicitly approved by governments gives the report special weight, say others.
"These negotiations can be seen as the place where communications, science and politics meet," said Vanessa Bulkacz of Climate Action Network Europe, an alliance of green groups.
"After that, it s up to governments to use these persistent scientific facts as a springboard for real climate action."
STOCKHOLM (AFP) - Scientists and governments pored over the summary Thursday of an eagerly awaited UN report expected to emphasise the escalating threat from climate change.
To be released in Stockholm on Friday, it will be the Nobel-winning panel s first overview since 2007 of the scientific evidence for climate change.
A draft of the summary seen by AFP declares with the greatest emphasis to date that climate change is on the march and humans are responsible for it.
The report "will fire the starting gun" for negotiations on reaching a new global pact by the end of 2015 on curbing greenhouse gases, said Tim Gore of Oxfam International.
Those talks are supposed to enact a UN goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-Industrial Revolution levels.
But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report will indicate that this goal can only be secured though a herculean effort to save energy or switch to cleaner sources.
Only one of the scenarios postulated in the report sees any possibility of safely anchoring the temperature rise to within 2 C by 2100.
It would require fossil-fuel emissions -- scaling new peaks almost every year -- to top out in 2020, then drastically decline over the next half-century.
In the worst projection, however, warming will be about 5.6 C (10.1 F) compared to the pre-industrial yardstick. The report will predict sea levels to rise by between 26 and 81 centimetres (10.4 and 32.4 inches) by 2100, according to the draft.
In its last big review, published six years ago, the Nobel-winning group projected an 18-59 cm (7.2-23.6 inch) rise by 2100. The big change comes from new evidence of melting from parts of the giant icesheets that smother Greenland and Antarctica.
The key document being unveiled on Friday is a 31-page summary of a massive technical text, the first volume of the IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report.
Governments around the world have a seat on the IPCC, and can vet the summary, given its implications for how states will address climate change. They cannot amend the main text, though.
Nations have called on scientists to tidy up a key section of the report to clarify why, over the past 15 years, temperatures have risen far slower than some computer models have suggested.
That phenomenon has been seized upon by sceptics to say that climate science is flawed or that global warming is a fraud by the green lobby.
Scientists attribute the "pause" to several factors, including variations in Earth s own climate system that are temporary but complex and still poorly understood.
The textual issue over this has been settled to the satisfaction of all, but delegates still have to pore over many other proposed amendments before the summary can be approved, said a source.
The challenge is "the volume of work, especially of the desire of some countries to get clarity," the delegate said. "But currently there are no sticking points." As a political issue, climate change is in the doldrums.
A first attempt was made at a summit in Copenhagen in 2009 for a deal to tame carbon emissions and help poor countries exposed to worsening droughts, storms and floods.
That event was a near-fiasco and led to the goal being postponed to 2015. Today, willingness for concessions is low, especially in countries still struggling after the 2008 financial crisis.
Some experts say the IPCC report will be too conservative. "They (in the IPCC) are so nervous now," said one, referring to damage done to the panel s reputation when several errors were found in its landmark 2007 overview. But the fact that the summary is explicitly approved by governments gives the report special weight, say others.
"These negotiations can be seen as the place where communications, science and politics meet," said Vanessa Bulkacz of Climate Action Network Europe, an alliance of green groups.
"After that, it s up to governments to use these persistent scientific facts as a springboard for real climate action."
Global warming slowdown gives thoughts for scientists, sceptics
In recent years, warming has lagged. So, where has the missing heat gone?PARIS, Sept 24, 2013 (AFP) - A slowdown in warming that has provided fuel for climate sceptics is one of the thorniest issues in a report to be issued by UN experts on Friday.
Over the past 15 years, the world's average surface temperature rose far slower than many climate models have predicted.
According to projections, global warming should go in lockstep with the ever-rising curve of heat-trapping carbon emissions.
But in recent years, warming has lagged. So, where has the missing heat gone?
For climate sceptics, the answer is clear. Either the computer models used to project temperature rise are flawed, or man-made global warming is just a green scam, they say.
The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will confirm warming has recently slowed.
The document, being debated line-by-line in Stockholm, is the first volume of a vast trilogy that will be released by the Nobel-winning group over the coming months, and only its fifth overview in a quarter of a century.
Over the past 50 years, the mean global temperature rise was 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.2 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade, slowing to an average 0.05 C (0.09 F) per decade over the past 15 years.
Half of the slowdown could be attributed to volcanic eruptions, whose particles reflect sunlight, and a bigger-than expected drop in heat from the Sun's changing activity cycle, said a summary of the report.
The other half is attributed to a "cooling contribution from internal variability".
Laurent Terray with the French computer modelling agency Cerfacs said the term is used to explain a shift in the way heat is distributed between land, sea and air.
Still unclear is what causes the variation or determines its duration.
"We know that this kind of episode, of a decadal length or thereabouts, can occur once or twice a century," said Terray.
"If it (the present one) continues for two more decades, we may start to think that the computer models are underestimating internal variability."
New research by Britain's Met Office suggests the "missing" heat, or some of it, is being transferred from the ocean surface to the deeps.
Temperatures at depths below 3,000 metres (10,000 feet) have been rising since the 1990s, implying a source of heat-trapping today will contribute to warming tomorrow.
Governments, which have the right to vet and amend the summary but not the main text on which it is based, are looking with concern at the brief section on the warming pause.
This reflects jitters after the IPCC's last big report in 2007 was shown to contain several background errors, denting the agency's credibility.
The panel's main conclusions were not affected but the mistakes were a windfall for sceptics.
Together with the 2008 financial crisis and the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen UN climate summit, this almost sent global warming into political limbo.
In comments of the IPCC summary draft, China, India and Norway want to know why the section dealing with the warming pause fails to refer to the role of the deep ocean.
Others complain the text is dangerous gobbledegook.
"This is an example of providing a bunch of numbers, then leave them up in the air without a concrete conclusion," says an angry US objection seen by AFP.
"(...) [T]he way it is written, it may set itself up for misleading conclusions."
Some countries take the opposite line.
Hungary says an anomaly that has lasted 15 years -- a blink of an eye on the geological timescale -- is too short and laden with unknowns to even rate a mention.
-- PROBLEMS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE --
The controversy touches on the sensitive issue of scientific uncertainty.
To scientists, admitting to uncertainty is not merely honest but entirely legitimate -- something to be acknowledged and debated, to be rejected or overcome.
But admitting to uncertainty is often misunderstood by the outside world and, says Andreas Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) near Berlin, exploited by sceptics.
"They can't stop physical reality, but they are slowing down" tougher action on carbon emissions, he said in a phone interview.
Alden Meyer, with the US environment group the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), urged the IPCC draft to spell out what is known about the warming pause.
"Otherwise, the denialists will claim that the IPCC's silence on this issue shows that global warming isn't as serious as scientists thought," he said in an email.
"The recent slowdown in temperature increases isn't unprecedented, and should be seen as a 'speed bump' on the way to a warmer world."
Warming lull haunts authors of key climate report
Global warming appears to have slowed down in past 15 years gas emissions keep rising.
STOCKHOLM (AP) - Scientists working on a landmark UN report on climate change are struggling to explain why global warming appears to have slowed down in the past 15 years even though greenhouse gas emissions keep rising.
Leaked documents obtained by The Associated Press show there are deep concerns among governments over how to address the issue ahead of next week's meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate skeptics have used the lull in surface warming since 1998 to cast doubt on the scientific consensus that humans are cooking the planet by burning fossil fuels and cutting down CO2-absorbing forests.
The IPCC report is expected to affirm the human link with greater certainty than ever, but the panel is under pressure to also address the recent lower rate of warming, which scientists say is likely due to heat going deep into the ocean and natural climate fluctuations.
"I think to not address it would be a problem because then you basically have the denialists saying, 'Look the IPCC is silent on this issue,'" said Alden Meyer, of the Washington-based Union of Concerned Scientists.
In a leaked June draft of the report's summary from policy-makers, the IPCC said the rate of warming in 1998-2012 was about half the average rate since 1951. It cited natural variability in the climate system, as well as cooling effects from volcanic eruptions and a downward phase in solar activity.
But several governments that reviewed the draft objected to how the issue was tackled, in comments to the IPCC obtained by the AP.
Germany called for the reference to the slowdown to be deleted, saying a time span of 10-15 years was misleading in the context of climate change, which is measured over decades and centuries.
The U.S. also urged the authors to include the "leading hypothesis" that the reduction in warming is linked to more heat being transferred to the deep ocean.
Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for any statistics. That year was exceptionally warm, so any graph showing global temperatures starting with 1998 looks flat, because most years since have been cooler. Using 1999 or 2000 as a starting year would yield a more upward-pointing curve.
Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for skeptics. Many skeptics claim that the rise in global average temperatures stopped in the late 1990s and their argument has gained momentum among some media and politicians, even though the scientific evidence of climate change is piling up: the previous decade was the warmest on record and, so far, this decade is even warmer.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice melted to a record low last year and the IPCC draft said sea levels have risen by 7.5 inches (19 centimeters) since 1901.
Many researchers say the slowdown in warming is related to the natural ocean cycles of El Nino and La Nina. Also, a 2013 study by Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found dramatic recent warming in the deeper oceans.
Stefan Rahmstorf, a German climate scientist, said it was possible that the report's authors were feeling pressured to address the warming slowdown because it's received so much attention recently.
"I think a lot of the interest in this topic in the science community has been triggered by the public debate about it," said Rahmstorf, who was a reviewer for the report's chapter on sea levels.
Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for the IPCC, declined to comment on the content of the report because it hasn't been finalized, but said it would provide "a comprehensive picture of all the science relevant to climate change, including the thousands of pieces of scientific research published since the last report in 2007 up to earlier this year."
The IPCC draft report says it's "extremely likely" that human influence caused more than half of the warming observed since the 1950s, an upgrade from "very likely" in the last IPCC report in 2007.
The panel also raised its projections for sea level rise to 10-32 inches (26-81 centimeters) by the end of the century. The 2007 report predicted a rise of 7-23 inches (18-59 centimeters).
Continued carbon emissions at or above current rates "would induce changes in all components in the climate system, some of which would very likely be unprecedented in hundreds to thousands of years," the IPCC said in the draft. A final version will be presented at the end of the panel's meeting in Stockholm next week.
The IPCC's conclusions are important because they serve as the scientific underpinnings of U.N. negotiations to rein in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. A global climate treaty is supposed to be adopted in 2015.
STOCKHOLM (AP) - Scientists working on a landmark UN report on climate change are struggling to explain why global warming appears to have slowed down in the past 15 years even though greenhouse gas emissions keep rising.
Leaked documents obtained by The Associated Press show there are deep concerns among governments over how to address the issue ahead of next week's meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate skeptics have used the lull in surface warming since 1998 to cast doubt on the scientific consensus that humans are cooking the planet by burning fossil fuels and cutting down CO2-absorbing forests.
The IPCC report is expected to affirm the human link with greater certainty than ever, but the panel is under pressure to also address the recent lower rate of warming, which scientists say is likely due to heat going deep into the ocean and natural climate fluctuations.
"I think to not address it would be a problem because then you basically have the denialists saying, 'Look the IPCC is silent on this issue,'" said Alden Meyer, of the Washington-based Union of Concerned Scientists.
In a leaked June draft of the report's summary from policy-makers, the IPCC said the rate of warming in 1998-2012 was about half the average rate since 1951. It cited natural variability in the climate system, as well as cooling effects from volcanic eruptions and a downward phase in solar activity.
But several governments that reviewed the draft objected to how the issue was tackled, in comments to the IPCC obtained by the AP.
Germany called for the reference to the slowdown to be deleted, saying a time span of 10-15 years was misleading in the context of climate change, which is measured over decades and centuries.
The U.S. also urged the authors to include the "leading hypothesis" that the reduction in warming is linked to more heat being transferred to the deep ocean.
Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for any statistics. That year was exceptionally warm, so any graph showing global temperatures starting with 1998 looks flat, because most years since have been cooler. Using 1999 or 2000 as a starting year would yield a more upward-pointing curve.
Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for skeptics. Many skeptics claim that the rise in global average temperatures stopped in the late 1990s and their argument has gained momentum among some media and politicians, even though the scientific evidence of climate change is piling up: the previous decade was the warmest on record and, so far, this decade is even warmer.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice melted to a record low last year and the IPCC draft said sea levels have risen by 7.5 inches (19 centimeters) since 1901.
Many researchers say the slowdown in warming is related to the natural ocean cycles of El Nino and La Nina. Also, a 2013 study by Kevin Trenberth at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found dramatic recent warming in the deeper oceans.
Stefan Rahmstorf, a German climate scientist, said it was possible that the report's authors were feeling pressured to address the warming slowdown because it's received so much attention recently.
"I think a lot of the interest in this topic in the science community has been triggered by the public debate about it," said Rahmstorf, who was a reviewer for the report's chapter on sea levels.
Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for the IPCC, declined to comment on the content of the report because it hasn't been finalized, but said it would provide "a comprehensive picture of all the science relevant to climate change, including the thousands of pieces of scientific research published since the last report in 2007 up to earlier this year."
The IPCC draft report says it's "extremely likely" that human influence caused more than half of the warming observed since the 1950s, an upgrade from "very likely" in the last IPCC report in 2007.
The panel also raised its projections for sea level rise to 10-32 inches (26-81 centimeters) by the end of the century. The 2007 report predicted a rise of 7-23 inches (18-59 centimeters).
Continued carbon emissions at or above current rates "would induce changes in all components in the climate system, some of which would very likely be unprecedented in hundreds to thousands of years," the IPCC said in the draft. A final version will be presented at the end of the panel's meeting in Stockholm next week.
The IPCC's conclusions are important because they serve as the scientific underpinnings of U.N. negotiations to rein in emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. A global climate treaty is supposed to be adopted in 2015.
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